The events unfolding in the Ukraine are being closely watched on this side of the world. With the world's second fastest growing outbound tourist market expected to eclipse record 2013 numbers, it appears that the Russia will fall short of expectations in Guam and the Northern Marianas.
Why?
Though the European Union has been balking at sanctions since the seizure of the Crimean Peninsula in recent days, the U.S. is frantically working to get other countries behind their efforts to denounce the activities by Russia. Don't expect the EU, China and Belarus to flinch so quickly. Germany is working a diplomatic solution. Great Britain is unlikely to jump in too quickly as the Russian wealth park millions in their country.
President Obama is drudging through any real deal. US troops in Europe are on alert-DOD sent F-15 fighter jets and one KC-135 re-fueling aircraft to Poland. The US has threatened economic sanctions.
This does not bode well for our isolated American economy reliant on a diverse visitor base to support our number one industry.
The Guam Visitors Bureau has reported that the number of Russian visitors since January 2012 has increased significantly when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security granted visa parole authority allowing Russian tourists to visit Guam. In 2013, about 8,000 visitors from Russia traveled to Guam and spent an average of $1,500 per person, per trip while on the island. Eighteen percent of Russian travelers interviewed last fiscal year were repeat visitors, and stayed for an average of 13.62 days.
Local leaders were reticent about the activities half a world away. No word if they engaged the White House for further details and how sanctions will have a huge impact on our island economy. No word if local leaders engaged members of Congress to seek a diplomatic solution that would avoid taking away any forward progress away from a growing marketplace threatened to go away just it was getting started.
My advice. Speak up about the impacts of such activities being described in Russia as ethnic Russians being treated badly in the Ukraine. Diplomatic pressure is only as good as the leadership. Many have been critical of the U.S. stance here-thanks in large part to the less than stellar foreign policy direction of our President. This has got to change and fast.
We can expect that if Russians are not coming to Guam or their top markets in Egypt and Thailand, then it is likely that they will stay at home. The Sochi Olympics was a hit domestically. Moscow and St. Petersburg tourism traffic by Russians was low but industry officials there expect to turnaround domestic visitor numbers for the balance of the year.
Look on the bright side and remember these names: AVIACHARTERS and Asiana Airlines. The Marianas will see an impact from the Crimea event. It is a matter of how adversely and for how long. Stronger U.S. foreign policy will make for a prosperous economic outcome for small markets like Guam and a substantive position to grow America's economy beyond the doldrums.